Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 4, 2010
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Fundamental Analysis: German Unemployment Change
The EUR will be affected by the publication of the German Unemployment Change tomorrow (Jan 5).
The German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in Germany. A rise trend indicates weakness in the labor market and has a negative affect on consumer spending and therefore on the economic growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.
Analysts predict a reading of 7.00K, up from the previous 6.00K.
As we have expected, the Euro tested the important 1.4449, stopping 10 pips below it, and started a drop that broke the support specified in Thursday’s report 1.4391, and reached both suggested targets 1.4330 & 1.4264 successfully. Stopping only 8 pips below 1.4264 before bouncing back to 1.43 assures its importance, and we will consider it support of the day, and the borderline between a continuation of the drop from 1.4439, or a bounce to the upside. If this important support is taken, we expect the Euro to drop on the first trading day of the New Year towards 1.4176 & 1.4103. But if it holds, a test of short term resistance 1.4308 will follow, and breaking it would lead to a correction of Thursday’s big fall, ideally targeting 1.4369, and if broken we will jump to 1.4424-1.4456, a resistance area that is full of short term resistance levels.
• 1.4264: Dec 21st low.
• 1.4176: Sep 1st low.
• 1.4103: Aug 10th low.
• 1.4308: intraday top.
• 1.4369: short term Fibonacci 61.8%.
• 1.4424-1.4456: a resistance area that is full of important levels for short term.
The Dollar-Yen broke the resistance specified in the last report of last year 92.50, and successfully reached the suggested target 93.08 with astonishing accuracy (Thursday’s high was 93.09). Short-term resistance is provided by this level. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53 and then 94.05. This uptrend is protected by the rising trend line from 84.81 which is currently at 91.54 and the SMA100 as well. On the other hand, if the price fails to break of 93.08, a drop towards short-term support 92.35 will follow. And if broken, we will target 91.54 where there is the rising trend line from 84.81. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.51, the most important support for the time being.
• 92.35: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
• 91.54: the rising trend line from 84.81.
• 90.51: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 93.09.
• 93.08: Thursday’s high.
• 93.53: Mar 19h low.
• 94.05: Aug 28th low.
Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Stock charts and other trading tools.
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