Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 23, Supplemental

Fundamental Weekly Outlook

EU:
• Monday: France PMI Manufacturing (Previous 55.6, Forecast 55.8) & PMI Services (Previous 57.7, Forecast 57.4). Germany PMI Manufacturing (Previous 51.0, Forecast 51.6) & PMI Services (Previous 50.7, Forecast 51.2). Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (Previous 50.7, Forecast 51.2) & PMI Services (Previous 52.6, Forecast 52.9).
• Tuesday: Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders MoM (Previous 2.0%, Forecast 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -23.1%, Forecast -17.1%). Business Confidence Indicator (Previous -1.78, Forecast -1.65). Germany GDP QoQ (Previous 0.7%, Forecast 0.7%) & YoY, (Previous -4.7%, Forecast -4.7%), Private Consumption (Previous 0.7, Forecast -0.4%), Capital Investment (Previous 0.8%, Forecast 0.8%), Imports (Previous -5.1%, Forecast 3.5%), Exports (Previous -1.2%, Forecast 4.1%). IFO - Business Climate (Previous 91.9, Forecast 92.5), IFO - Current Assessment (Previous 87.3, Forecast 88.0), IFO – Expectations (Previous 96.8, Forecast 97.3). France Consumer Spending MoM (Previous 2.3%, Forecast 2.4%) & YoY (Previous 1.0%, Forecast 2.3%). Business Confidence Indicator (Previous 89, Forecast 91).
• Wednesday: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Previous 4, Forecast 4).
• Thursday: Germany CPI MoM (Previous 0.1%, Forecast 0.0%) & YoY (Previous 0.0%, Forecast 0.5%).
• Friday: Germany Import Price Index YoY (Previous -11.0%, Forecast -8.7%) & MoM (Previous -0.9%, Forecast 0.4%).. France Consumer Confidence. Business Confidence Indicator (Previous -35, Forecast -35) Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (Previous -18, Forecast -17).

US:
• Monday: Existing Home Sales MoM (Previous 9.4%, Forecast 2.3%).
• Tuesday: GDP QoQ (Previous 3.5%, Forecast 2.9%), Personal Consumption (Previous 3.4%, Forecast 3.2%), Consumer Confidence (Previous 47.7, Forecast 47.5), House Price Index MoM (Previous -0.3%, Forecast -0.1%). Minutes of Nov. 4 FOMC Meeting (Text Report).
• Wednesday: Personal Income (Previous 0.0%, Forecast 0.2%), Personal Spending (Previous -0.5%, Forecast -0.6%). Durable Goods Orders (Previous 1.0%, Forecast 0.5%), Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (Previous -0.9%, Forecast 0.7%). Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 500K, Forecast 505K), University of Michigan Confidence (Previous 66.0, Forecast 67.0), New Home Sales MoM (Previous -3.6%, Forecast 0.8%).

JP:
• Wednesday: Trade Balance (Previous 520.6 B, Forecast 465.5 B).
• Friday: Jobless Rate (Previous 5.3%, Forecast 5.4%), Tokyo CPI YoY (Previous -2.4%, Forecast -2.3%), Tokyo CPI EX Food & Energy YoY (Previous -1.4%, Forecast -1.4%), National CPI YoY (Previous -2.2%, Forecast -2.4%), National CPI EX Food & Energy YoY (Previous -1.0%, Forecast -1.1%). Retail Sales MoM (Previous 0.9%, Forecast -0.9%) & YoY (Previous -1.4%, Forecast -1.6%).

UK:
• Wednesday: GDP QoQ (Previous -0.4%, Forecast -0.3%) & YoY (Previous -5.2%, Forecast -5.1%), Private Consumption (Previous -0.6%, Forecast -0.2%), Exports (Previous -1.4%, Forecast 1.4%), Imports (Previous -2.2%, Forecast 2.0%).

AU:
• Monday: New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM (Previous 2.9%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -2.0%, Forecast N/A).
• Tuesday: CB Leading Index (Previous 1.8%, Forecast N/A).
• Thursday: Private Capital Expenditure (Previous 3.3%, Forecast 1.0%).

CA:
• Monday: Retail Sales (Previous 0.8%, Forecast 0.6%) & Retail Sales Less Autos (Previous 0.5%, Forecast 0.4%).
• Friday: Current Account (Previous -11.2%, Forecast N/A).


Technical Analysis

Euro Dollar:

The pair has pulled off the low of the range (1.4800), and looks prepared to move back higher to test some former highs. This will either be confirmed or rejected based on movement through the following levels:

A move back above 1.4890 indicates movement back above 1.4900 and a test of recent swing highs at 1.4930-1.4940. We have trendline support above this at 1.4950-1.4965, this will also act as resistance. Beyond is resistance at 1.4980-1.4990.

Keep in mind that old support and resistance become new resistance and support respectively if a level is moved through and then retreats back. Movement through one level indicates movement to the next, and failures are likely to move back to other levels mentioned. Support and resistance does not mean rates will move exactly to the price mentioned, rather they are profit taking opportunities in those areas (or possibly entry prices if moved through) as retracements are more likely around those levels. This is misunderstood by many traders, and I will elaborate on it on an upcoming post on my blog.

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For further in-depth reading on USD/CAD and other major currencies, visit our Technical Analysis section.

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A drop back below 1.4840 is our first indication of a move lower. The trend line this move would break is short term and not of high importance. The closest major level is 1.4800. A break below that would be significant.

A break below 1.4800, if it is legit, will find support at 1.4770, 1.4740-1.4730 then 1.4700. If the break is not legit and just a stop run, it will likely tucker out by 1.4780-1.4770 and then reverse. I say that only we because we all know there are a pile of stops sitting down there.

Keep in mind that since we know stop hunting is a common practice, whether intentional or not, and is a strategy in and of itself. If there is a level that is likely to have many stops it, it seems to create a gravitational pull and can result in a quick surge but often retraces. Watch and see if you see this happening around critical levels. If there is interest I can post a article on how to trade this phenomenon. Have a great day trading everyone!

Forex Analysis written by Cory Mitchell, in conjunction with Forexpros

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