Free webinar tomorrow - Market Fundamentals 1

Expert:  Mark Dela Paz
When: Tue, Sep 22, 2009, 11:00 EST

Foundations of Fundamental Analysis. Understanding the meaning of price and a review of the academic theory on foreign exchange rate determination.

Click here to join the webinar.
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Euro Dollar

The Euro is approaching at this very moment the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart, and in the same area we noticed an intraday support that has shown itself several times lately, which adds more importance to this level. Reaching this area is the most important test for the EURUSD since reaching 1.4766 last Thursday. If it survives here, there will be a chance to test the most important resistance for the short-term 1.4723 which is the falling trendline from last week's high, and if this resistance is also taken, we will have a good chance of seeing the top of the channel which is currently at 1.4824, this week. On the other hand, breaking this channel would be a clear signal of weakness, and would mean that we are currently in a correction for the whole up-move from 1.4176 to 1.4766, which is going to target 1.4541 at least, and probably areas below it, the most important of which are 1.4471 & 1.4401.

Support:

  • 1.4660: the bottom of the current rising channel, and an intraday support that has shown itself several times lately.
  • 1.4579: previous support.
  • 1.4514: Sep 14th high.

Resistance:

  • 1.4723: the falling trendline from Thursday's high 1.4766.
  • 1.4774: previous daily high.
  • 1.4824: previous daily low.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen is approaching Fibonacci resistance 91.70, at this very moment, for the third time, and we could see a break in the next few hours, especially after breaking the falling trend channel on Friday, and closing above it. After this break, the most important resistance became 92.07, which is the level that the price should break to show seriousness in breaking the channel. If we manage to surpass it, more upside action is to be expected, reaching, or at least approaching the resistance area 92.70-92.80. Today's short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from Wednesday's low, which is currently at 91.31, and breaking it would be evidence of weakness, and moving to areas below 90, where some targets await, the first of which is the support area 89.68-89.78. We do not see USDJPY free from pressure without breaking 92.07.

Support:

  • 91.31: the rising trendline from Wednesday's low.
  • 90.71: intraday support/resistance from last week.
  • 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

Resistance:

  • 92.07: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last move falling from 93.28, the most important resistance for today.
  • 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.
  • 93.28: Sep 7th high.

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Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
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