Free webinar today - Market Fundamentals 1

Expert:  Mark Dela Paz
When: Tue, Sep 22, 2009, 11:00 EST

Foundations of Fundamental Analysis. Understanding the meaning of price and a review of the academic theory on foreign exchange rate determination.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro held around the secondary Fibonacci support of 23.6%, which is in the 1.4620 area, and went back up to above 1.47. The limited move of yesterday had limited effect. We have re-drawn the channel, to make it comprehensive, and to include all the price behavior since the beginning of the month. The bottom of this new channel is exactly at Fibonacci 38.2% support 1.4541, which makes this support a candidate to be the decisive area separating positive from negative territory. As for the short-term , the support is 1.4705, and a break here would initiate a correction for the rise from yesterday's low, ideally targeting 1.4656, the support that if broken would open the road to test the most important support for now 1.4541. Short-term resistance is 1.4756 and breaking it is the key to reach 1.48 for the first time this year, where some targets await us, especially 1.4824 and 1.4901.

Support:

  • 1.4656: short-term support.
  • 1.4541: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term, and the bottom of the rising channel from the beginning of the month. The most important support for now, breaking it would mean the end of the uptrend for the medium-term.
  • 1.4471: Fibonacci 50% for medium-term.

Resistance:

  • 1.4756: short-term resistance.
  • 1.4824: previous daily high.
  • 1.4901: previous daily high.

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USD/JPY

We have reached 92.50 for the first time in two weeks, after breaking all Fibonacci resistance levels for the last move down. But even that the Dollar-Yen broke them all, it could not hold above 92, returning fast to test the previous resistance 91.60-91.63 which became a support. In the same area, we find the rising trendline from last week's low 90.11, which ads more importance to an already important area. Until this very moment, the support area has held (today's low until now is 91.62). That is why we will keep this area on the lookout. Holding above here will give another chance to reach the resistance area 92.70-92.80, and may be later test the previous top 93.28. Breaking it would be a surprise after yesterday's advance. And if this surprise happens, we would go back to the negative status of this pair, which would gradually lead to test (and may be break) the psychological level 90, and to targets below it, first of which is the support area 89.68-89.78.

Support:

  • 91.60: previous resistance area, and the rising trendline from last week's low.
  • 90.97: intraday support from last week.
  • 91.11: Sep 16th low.

Resistance:

  • 92.17: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
  • 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.
  • 93.28: Sep 7th high.

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Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
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