Resistance 3: 104.80

Resistance 2: 104.50

Resistance 1: 104.20/30

Latest New York: 104.01

Support 1: 103.50/60

Support 2: 103.20/30

Support 3: 103.00

Other Things to Watch/Open Trades/News

4-30-08 SHORT USD/JPY 104.80 Stops @ 105.80

BOJ leaves rate unchanged, lowers GDP estimate from 2.1% to 1.5% for 2008


Extra effort by the bulls cleans out stops and makes the 105.00 area in view now; failure at 104.80 Wednesday AM set-up break after FOMC. Failure on Tuesday sets the tone for a test of 105.00 area at some point Wednesday (that is done now). Traders note that the market is still trading technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; expect some volatility. Day traders may get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame. With rate back under the 104.00 handle expect a bounce from the 103.20/30 area if stops accelerate the move; look to sell that bounce the next 48 hours; which we are in now. Rate looking for a failure by Thursday afternoon.

Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

7:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y -2.3%0.0%

Analysis by: written by Jason Alan Jankovsky


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