ForexPros Daily Analysis August 03, 2010
Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex
Trading to Start Winning
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT
Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one
direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction?
Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take
care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up
of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful
driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in
Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your
direction right and increase your win rate.
Fundamental Analysis: Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate is a measure of the percentage of the total labor
force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work
A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage
is a positive indicator for the labor market in New-Zealand and should be
taken as positive for the NZD. The analysts predict a future reading of
The Euro broke resistance specified in yesterday's report 1.3086, and came
very close to hitting the suggested target of 1.3200, but it stopped only 6
pips before it, then it spent the night in a tight range between 1.3183 &
1.3150. With this, the Euro jumped strongly, but this jump has not reached
its target yet. Naturally, we expect more of the same today, and soaring
above 1.32. But, before we get overexcited, we must wait for a break of the
falling trend line from yesterday's top on intraday chart, which is running
currently at 1.3174. If we do break this line, the Euro will start rising
again, and we will target 1.3266 first, and may be at a later time 1.3325.
On the other hand, short term 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3112 will be our
support of the day. If broken, a correction will be initiated, and the price
will start giving up yesterday's gains. This will target a test of a very
noteworthy trend line at 1.3040. If this is also broken, the positive
technical outlook will change dramatically, and we will target 1.2952.
* 1.3112: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from Friday's low.
* 1.3040: the rising trend line from Jun 29th low, and also Jul 28th high.
* 1.2952: a well known previous support resistance, which includes several
daily highs and lows, among those Jul 27th high, and Jul 15th low.
* 1.3174: the falling trend line from yesterday's high on intraday charts.
* 1.3266: Apr 25th important bottom.
* 1.3325: Apr 7th low.
No change! Nothing of any technical importance took place yesterday,
therefore, we still hold the same technical outlook we did yesterday. After
we have clearly surpassed wave 5 bottom, the correction we have been
monitoring for the past days is finally over, and it is official: we are in
a new down wave! But the bounce from Friday's low 85.93, which is closing on
the important resistance 86.81 this morning, warns of a correction to what
we have seen of the new wave so far (the drop from 88.10 to 85.93).
Nevertheless, with a correction in these areas, or without, dropping far
below 86 and may be below 84.81 itself has turned into a most probable
scenario. The resistance which will determine if this bounce from Friday's
low will go on or stall, is 86.81. If broken, the Dollar will keep shooting
higher, targeting 87.49 & then what we imagine as the ceiling for the
price at this stage 88.10. But, if we break the exciting support 86.25
instead, we will start dropping to areas below Friday's low, we find 85.52 &
84.81 to be the most attractive of which.
* 86.25: Jul 16th low, just 2 pip below Thursday's low.
* 85.52: the falling trend line combining the daily lows of Jul 1st & 16th.
* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years.
* 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th lows, and an obvious hourly support.
* 87.49: Jul 29th high.
* 88.10: Jul 28th top.
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros. For more information about currency charts visit ForexPros.
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