Overnight Asia/Europe

• USD opens flat and two-way in Asia, firms into Europe

• Traders note technical action for the most part

• Volumes light, stops noted, crosses again active

Today’s Economic Reports

All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

• 9:59am USD Existing Home Sales

• 10:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m

Looking Ahead to Tuesday

All times Eastern (-5 GMT)

• 10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m

• All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales


It is a mixed start for the USD this morning as the Chinese markets are back after the extended Lunar New Year celebrations; the Greenback is better against EURO, GBP, CHF and CAD but softer against JPY to start the month. Although trading was light to start Asia, technical follow-on buying from Friday saw the majors start losing ground steadily into early Europe; below-expectations UK CBI data helped pressure GBP into early lows around the 1.4230 area with traders saying a failure at the key support area of 1.4250 to extend losses. GBP making lows in early New York at 1.4093 with noted sellers active on the GBP crosses. EURO is also weaker after posting early highs in Asia at 1:2800 before turning lower to find stops under the 1.2750 area; low prints at 1.2707 found buyers at the technical level of 1.2720 and the rate is firm into early New York around the 1.2760 area. Traders expect support at 1.2720 to offer at least a slight bounce and note that both EURO and GBP are on or near technical support and have corrected recent strength to long-term fib defense areas suggesting that long-timeframe traders may be interested on the buy side soon. Aggressive traders can buy EURO under the 1.2750 area in my view. USD/CHF is firmer to start the week, high prints in Asia at 1.1689—again at technical resistance. Traders note that offers extend above the 1.1700 area into the 1.1750 area and suggest that the upside may be limited for the week. Low prints at 1.1599 continue to be above the 1.1580 area where large stops are likely building. USD/CAD high prints at 1.2405 were also at near-term resistance between 1.2380 and 1.2420; aggressive traders can look to sell the rate above the 1.2400 area in my view. Lows at 1.2257 overnight make for a larger range than most pairs suggesting more volatility in this pair near-term so be nimble on positions. USD/JPY continued to trade in a tight range ahead of New York, high prints at 90.02 were offered as has been the case the past several sessions; traders saying that as long as 90.50/60 area holds on a closing basis the rate will likely remain stuck. Low prints at 88.80 are right on technical support with bids said to be layered into the 88.50 area suggesting more coiling action is likely. In my view, the majors are starting the week inside range and driven by technical areas; news from the US today and tomorrow is light and traders note the Greenback appears to be drifting more so than being actively accumulated. Expect S/R to hold near-term and the majors to remain range bound within existing highs and lows. I don’t expect the USD to make a break out one way or the other for a few days.

Forex Analysis written by Jason Alan Jankovsky, featured by forexpros.com