Resistance 3: 108.80

Resistance 2: 108.50

Resistance 1: 108.00/10

Latest New York: 107.81

Support 1: 107.20/30

Support 2: 107.00

Support 3: 106.80


Rate grinding sideways to higher overnight; volumes lighter and upside resistance is firm at 108.00 area. Failure to close above the 108.00 handle Monday a good sign rate is ready to break back to the lows looking for stops under the 107.10/107.00 area. Exponential reversal signal still valid, rate is two-way but weaker each day. If short—let it work. If today’s rally fails under the 108.00 handle look for a drop into stops under the 107.00/10 area the next 24 hours. Look to add if rate can hit the stops in the 107.00 area near-term. Some topping seen; expect volatility. Bids appear solid but so do offers; exporters likely on the offer all the way to the highs overnight and active the past several days. USD likely not this strong but more benefiting from Yen weakness. Stops likely rolled up under the 107.00 area for today so if a break happens—look for a drop to the 106.00 handle fairly quickly.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

7:50pm JPY Trade Balance

7:50pm JPY CSPI

Analysis by: written by Jason Alan Jankovsky


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