ForexPros Daily Analysis March 29, 2010

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Fundamental Analysis: GDP (QoQ)

Traders of the UK anticipate the publication of the GDP measurement. The
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity
and is a key indicator for the economy's health. The quarterly percent
changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole. A higher
than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while
a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the
GBP. Analysts predict a future reading of 0.30%.


Euro Dollar

The Euro continued to rise from last week's low, Friday's low, and the
10-month low 1.3266. It challenged the important resistance 1.3453,
surpassed it clearly. But in spite of that we wonder: Can it go back to
uptrend? The collapse which happened late last week is completely expected,
not only that, but we believe what we have seen yet is just part one of a
strong and massive medium term drop which has already started! We will not
be a bit surprised when we see the Euro below 1.30 in the near future, on
the contrary, we look forward with eager to that. But after dropping from
1.38 to 1.32 in a few days, a rising correction is normal & logical thing
and holds no surprises. Thus, we should focus of the projected targets for
this correction. As for the short term, we see resistance at the nearby
1.3453, and the EURUSD will stay harmed, trading under a very negative
technical outlook as long as we are below this resistance. But if a surprise
takes us above this level one more time, we will correct the last wave down
from 1.38. Ideal targets for such a correction are 1.3541 & 1.3606. As for
the support it is at 1.3385 and breaking it would indicate a continuation of
the drop. We do expect large targets to be met for the short term, such as
1.3283 & 1.3190.

* 1.3385: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from yesterday's bottom.
* 1.3283: Thursday's low.
* 1.3190: Apr 30th low.

* 1.3453: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
* 1.3541: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.3816.
* 1.3606: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.3816.



Dollar-Yen did not move a lot on Friday, and failed to create any moves that
could change the technical picture. As we said on the last report of the
past week, what is important can be seen when taking a look at the daily
chart, and spotting that break of a one year old trend line which frustrated
the Dollar deeply on 3 previous occasions. This break turns the medium term
outlook to positive, after breaking 90.78 did the same for the short term
outlook. With this break, the Dollar has released itself from pressure, and
the direction of the Dollar in this pair could now agree with its direction
against the European currencies, and we could end up seeing a board Dollar
rally against all majors. After this rocketing rise, a correction is
normally expected, and here, the previous critical resistance 90.78 has
turned to a support that the price should hold above. Short term support is
at 92.29 & breaking it would indicate a drop to 91.34 first, and may be then
another drop to 90.78 to retest it. If price holds above it, or at least
close to it, there will be no harm. But it we go back below this level, the
positive technical outlook will get hit hard. As for the resistance it is at
92.77 & if broken, the current rise will continue, and the Dollar will rise
to a new set of important targets above 93 which includes: 93.20 & 93.75.

* 92.29: Friday's low.
* 91.34: short term Fibonacci 50% support.
* 90.78: the previous magnetic resistance, which turned to the most
important support now

* 92.77: important intraday resistance.
* 93.20: Jan 4th high.
* 93.75: Jan 8th high.


Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji
for ForexPros.


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