Resistance 3: 1.5900

Resistance 2: 1.5880

Resistance 1: 1.5850

Latest New York: 1.5721

Support 1: 1.5710/20

Support 2: 1.5680

Support 3: 1.5650/60


Disappointing day for the bulls; close under the 50 bar argues for return to bearish action. Stops and offers noted above the 1.5790/1.5800 areas, COT data showed an increase in EURO shorts through last week and those are likely cleared now; fall back today tests the 50 bar MA; close below likely signals a further decline. Trichet hints at a rate hike for July but today’s rhetoric a bit softer; I think that is only to stem a rapid rise too quickly. Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area which is a likely to offer upside resistance through the rest of the week. Now that the break is out of the way we will look for a place to re-enter our longs.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

2:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m -0.8%

4:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.2%