Resistance 3: 109.20

Resistance 2: 108.80

Resistance 1: 108.50/60

Latest New York: 107.95

Support 1: 107.60/70

Support 2: 107.20/30

Support 3: 106.80


Exponential reversal signal overnight, need to sell the rate. Close under the 108.00 area significant; look to add if rate can hit the stops in the 107.40/50 area near-term. Some topping seen; expect volatility. Today’s close under the 200 bar MA likely to draw some sympathy selling but watch volumes. Bids appear solid but so do offers; exporters on the offer all the way to the top overnight and active the past several days. Option defense noted at 107.80 through 108.20; but that has fallen this morning. Technical traders note fib defense area around today’s highs and never forget that the fundamentals haven’t changed one bit in the last week or so. USD likely not this strong but more benefiting from Yen weakness. Can the rate top at the 108.50 area? Stops likely rolled up under the 107.40 area again for today so if a break happens—look for a drop to the 106.00 handle fairly quickly. Bulls likely to take gains by end of day if rumored stops above the 108.60/70 area are left untouched.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

7:50pm JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m

Analysis by: written by Jason Alan Jankovsky


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