Resistance 3: 105.80

Resistance 2: 105.50

Resistance 1: 105.20/30

Latest New York: 104.62

Support 1: 104.20/30

Support 2: 103.80

Support 3: 103.20/30


Rate powers through offers at the 104.50 area and stops drive the rate to next resistance at the 104.80 area; fails at the highs. After US news is out this morning, expect a rally into the 105.10/20 area to be sold; we opened an aggressive short in that area today. Caution on the potential top is the rate closing over the 100 bar MA today. COT data showing an increase of net JPY longs making the upside potential for the USD a bit higher in my view; but that was likely the pop this morning. Stops the other side of 104.50 were in size suggesting that speculators got heavily short near current market pricing as 104.50 area is in range with the recent weekly highs. This week’s data may support near-term as the USD has had a lot of bad press the past quarter and has managed a firm start to the year; perhaps the Yen has a further downside correction to go before the USD bears are again out in force.

Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

7:15pm JPY Manufacturing PMI 48.6

7:30pm JPY Core CPI y/y 1.0%

7:30pm JPY Core Tokyo CPI y/y 0.9%

7:30pm JPY Overall Household Spending y/y -0.7%

7:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 3.9%

7:50pm JPY Industrial Production m/m

Analysis by: written by Jason Alan Jankovsky


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