Friday Acreage Report Key to Grain Trading

The report is due at 7:30 a.m. Central Friday.

The next 40 days are critical for the 2012-13 corn and beans season. This has been the warmest year and among the top 10 driest on record.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

With this year's corn ending stocks, come the start of the new marketing year Sept. 1 with a minimal 50-day supply and next year's bean ending stocks already projected to be the lowest since 1965.

On March 30, the USDA released a survey showing what grain farmers intend to plant. The report showed farmers intend to plant:

•  95.864 million acres of corn, up from 91.921 the year prior (3.9 million acres)
•  73.902 million acres of beans down from 74.976 the past year or ( 1.074 million acres)

TRADERS' FEARS

When corn dropped in value, many speculated that farmers may change planting intentions to profit from the increase in bean prices.

Since January, the price of November new crop year beans rose 1.75 per bushels into mid-April when early planting began and December new crop corn dropped .75 cents.

On the recent poll of brokerage firms, there are estimates of 2 million acres less corn to 2.6 million acres more beans planted.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

Any stretch to that extreme would change new crop prices considerably to bullish corn and bearish beans. Yet many say the opposite, but not as extreme. When all the guesses were averaged, they suggest corn acres at 95.878 or 14,000 acres more and beans 75.377 or 1.475 million acres more.

This would be neutral corn prices but could push beans lower Friday.

If acres come in close to the average estimate, expect a one-day price adjustment with traders coming in to start the new week back to weather for it primary pricing source.