Visible Trade Balance

Previous-6451 million pounds
Forecast-6250 million pounds
Definition

It the largest component of a country's balance of payments, and represents the difference in monetary value between exports and imports on goods and services in an economy over a certain period of time. The official balance of trade is separated into the balance of merchandise trade for tangible goods and the balance of services.
 
A negative trade balance is known as a trade deficit and means imports are more than exports, while a positive trade balance is know as a trade surplus. The trade balance is divided into a goods and services balance, especially in the UK, the terms visible and invisible balance are used, the visible balance is the part that refers to international trades in physical goods, but not trade in services, the visible balance is affected by changes in the volumes of imports and exports and the changes in the terms of trade.

The invisible balance refers to services and other products that don’t result in the transfer of physical objects such as consulting services, tourism and patent license revenues.

Trade Balance Non-EU measures trades between other countries while taking into account amount of exports to nations which exclude the European Union while subtracting the amount of imports from those economies.

All the trade balance data is released in billion pounds monthly by the Office of National Statistics, usually 40 days pursuing the reporting month. 

General Effect

A trade surplus is good for the economy because this shows that production and the outflow is more than the inflow which means higher returns poured into the economy than out.

This results in increasing stock prices because people will demand more of the stocks with higher returns. In order to pay for the exports, foreign importers will have to buy more of the domestic currency which will increase its value. However, if the value of the currency keeps on increasing, it will reach a limit where it will become too expensive to purchase and therefore they will not be able to purchase the exports.

A trade deficit means that the economy is hindering because the inflow is more than the outflow which means that domestic production is not doing well. If the demand form domestic products by locals or foreigners are decreasing then there will be less production and the unemployment rate will increase which is bad for the overall economy. In addition to that, the value of the currency will demolish because the demand on it is basically declining.

All in all, the release has a seen impact on equities and currencies, regardless that a trade surplus is much better than a deficit; yet again that does not mean the economy is not doing well. Market participants tend to absorb the data within the release as higher exports mean strong production wheel and thereby will tend to push higher employment, investment, and there by the aggregate result strengthens the currency, and again that means equities tend to go higher resulting from higher returns especially the exporting sector. 

Best Case ScenarioThe UK visible trade balance is scheduled in which expectations show that the deficit will shrink led by lower oil prices and weakened imports as a result of dampened domestic demand, yet if the deficit released today would be a result of higher exports then this would support the gross domestic product as the economy is in recession and this would be the best case scenario.
Worst Case ScenarioSince we know that the shrinking trade deficit positively affects the GDP but if it as a result of slipping imports then this be a clear sign that due to the global slowdown, domestic demand is dampened and further means curtailed consumption in the economy.