|Analysis||Crude oil is steady above $69 a barrel on Monday after sliding earlier today in Asia to a low of $68.45 amid concerns in markets with regard recovery.|
Oil dipped in 8 consecutive sessions, marking the longest stretch of decline since July 2001, on fears that recession may be W-shaped which eroded demand oil. In addition, many investors are closing positions at the end of the year which is pulling prices further to the downside. Oil is expected to find next support at $65 a barrel. Currently, analysts expect oil to move between $65-$75 instead of $70-$80.
On the supply side, oil inventories in the world's largest crude consumer declined as seen by the EIA report released last Wednesday. Also, OPEC is not expected to change its production level in the coming meeting in Angola. A price range of $70-$80 is satisfying for the cartel, but if prices continued declining further OPEC may slash production.
Today, industrial production in Japan, the third-largest crude consumer, remained unchanged, while the U.S. will release its industrial report tomorrow. Meanwhile, there have been changes in fundamentals since the dollar moved away from carry trades leaving it to the yen solely and started to respond to the U.S. data. Thus, it may gain further in the coming period as the U.S. economy is expected to expand 2.6% in 2010.
The green currency started inclining sharply since the release of the NPF report on hopes the U.S. economy is recovering and may hike interest rate faster than other major economies. Hence, oil and other dollar-denominated commodities are facing pressure from the dollar's advance. The dollar index, a gauge of the dollar's strength versus a basket of major currencies, advanced to one-month high after the upbeat U.S. retail sales figures released on Friday. However, the greenback did a downside correction today to 76.29 from Friday's closing at 76.51.
In stock markets, Asian stocks bounced today after Abu Dhabi surprisingly pledged to lend Dubai World, owned by Dubai government, $10 billion to pay its instant financial commitments. The stellar news boosted Dubai shares to the highest level since October 2008, while MSCI Asia Pacific Index added near 0.5%.
Oil is currently traded at $69.60 recording a high of $69.77, whereas the contract on Friday shed $0.67 closing at $69.87, recording a high of $71.20 per barrel and a low of $69.46 per barrel.