|Previous||4.7 million barrel|
|Forecast||1.0 million barrel|
|Analysis||Crude oil is trading positively correcting yesterday’s losses backed by the weaker dollar that put more upside pressures on crude, where it saw a huge drop in past two days after the Greek PM announced a referendum on the second bailout, which pulled back fears into the picture.|
It is expected today that the FEDS would provide more signs to boost the economy with more measures that may take, and it may take some steps to support the labor sector which is struggling amid bad economic conditions and a fragile recovery pace in U.S. and worldwide.
Hopes from U.S. are dominating the sentiment and driving currencies and commodities to the upside, as more hints will be announced on how to support the growth in the world’s biggest economy neglecting downside pressures from Europe and its crisis.
Crude oil opened today’s session at $91.05 and reached a low of $90.95 and recorded so far a high of $93.14, where it is currently trading with a positive momentum around 92.83.
On the other hand, tomorrow is the key day that the G-20 will take place in France, where hopes exist that they may push the market up and find a solution or come up with suggestions that would satisfy investors after the Greece bombshell.
The weaker dollar and hopes from U.S. that they may announce more measures that would help boost the economy, and especially the labor sector, are main factors that supporting crude and pushing it to the upside amid high uncertainty in Europe that the EU plan will not be useful if the referendum said NO.
The USDIX index that measures the U.S. dollar performance against six major currencies declined sharply since the opening of today’s session at 77.31 to reach so far a low of 76.88 and recorded a high of 77.58, where it is currently trading negatively around 76.92.
Although, mixed factors that are affecting crude oil now as from Europe signs of a vague future for the continent are putting downside pressures on oil as future demand will decrease if the crisis gone wrong, but on hopes from U.S. and a weaker dollar are currently affecting crude significantly.
All in all, the main factors that would affect crude prices significantly today is the EIA report which is expected to show a rise in U.S. inventories last week by 1.0 million barrels compared to the previous rise by 4.7 million barrels, where if it come less than expected and showed a drop in U.S. stockpiles, crude may continue its corrective wave and find some momentum to proceed the upside journey.
Nonetheless, today the European economic agenda is due to release some key fundamentals that will change the market direction indeed if it came less or better than expectations, but the main focus would be on the American fundamentals that will hit the markets sentiment or its going to be a relief for investors amid high uncertainties around the globe.