|News||Crude is bearish after weekend talks over Iran's nuclear program|
|Analysis||Crude oil fell at the beginning of the week after Iran and the West completed long negotiations on the weekend which came with no notable results except determine a second round of negotiations, and this opened the door for the commodity to continue its downside wave.|
Crude opened today’s session at $102.72 and fell to reach so far a low of $101.84 and is currently trading negatively around 101.95 a barrel.
Negotiations between Iran and the five permanent members in the UN plus Germany did not came with any effective solution but both parties agreed to have a second round of discussions on May 23rd. Although, investors remained concerned over the Iranian oil supplies and a war possibility especially that Israel didn’t rule out the military intervention.
As we can see dear reader, there is nothing clear so far weather there will be any military action on Iran, or the country would step back on its nuclear program, the situation remained unclear at the current time. However, just agreeing on a second round of talks considered to be positive and eased the pressure on crude supplies.
This result is been able to push crude to the downside helped as well by pessimism in Europe which pulled oil prices to the downside, as European countries are facing expensive borrowing costs especially Spain and Italy raising the fear level over the Euro outlook.
Expensive borrowing costs in Europe trigger more fears in the region, as it reflect the market’s worries and doubts over the ability of these countries, who face higher borrowing costs, to get out from the debt hole and return to grow economically.
This high uncertainty in global financial markets urged investors to buy U.S. dollar as a safe haven, which pushed the currency higher at the beginning of the week after Friday’s huge gains. The USDIX opened today’s session at 79.90 to reach so far a high of 80.14 and is trying now to achieve more gains.
This stronger dollar is a main factor that provides a bearish momentum for crude along with other factors that we talked about, but this does not negate that we would see heavy volatility ahead of U.S. retail sales which is expected to show a sharp drop in sales during March.