Weekly Trend Duration and Support/Resistance

 TrendWCURR1 STD2 STD3 STDATR(13w)S3S2S1R1R2R3
EURUSDUp2612183.01%1.32221.33521.34851.37571.38931.4030
GBPUSDUp2612192.04%1.56771.57821.58891.61061.62151.6323
AUDUSDDown2713202.83%0.96240.97130.98040.99891.00831.0176
NZDUSDUp1917263.32%0.73540.74330.75150.76820.77660.7850
USDJPYDown259142.04%80.9081.4481.9983.1183.6784.23
USDCADDown1148121.78%0.97560.98140.98710.99891.00481.0107
USDCHFDown3714212.76%0.93240.94080.94940.96690.97570.9845
             
EURJPYUp249132.61%109.58110.52111.47113.42114.40115.37
EURGBPDown1713202.29%0.83200.83830.84470.85760.86410.8706

-TrendW is weekly trend and CURR denotes how long the current trend has been underway in weeks. 1,2,3 STD are 1st,2nd, and 3rd standard deviations of the duration of trends measured over the last 150 weeks (3 years).

-ATR(13w) is 13 week average true range expressed as a percentage

-On the charts below, magenta bars/candles indicate key reversals (classic definition) from a 13 week high/low and a range for the week that is at least as large as 13 week ATR

Euro / US Dollar

Weekly Bars

012111FXTW_body_eurusd.png,

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The EURUSD continued higher following last week's key reversal week. Resistance should be strong near the 61.8% retracement at 13744. Also watch the line parallel to the neckline for resistance. Downside levels of interest are 12587 (former low) and 12207 (100% extension). Look to the Daily Technicals and the DailyFX Forex Stream for trade ideas. Also, those without knowledge of the Elliott wave model may wish to view past presentations on the subject.

British Pound / US Dollar

Weekly Bars

012111FXTW_body_gbpusd.png,

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The GBPUSD continues to hold up and a push above 16299 cannot be ruled out. In such an event, resistance would be 16457. The triangle pattern should result in weakness towards 14780 (wave D) in the months ahead however regardless if that decline begins now or from above 16299. The lower triangle line intersects with 14780 in April.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Weekly Bars

012111FXTW_body_audusd.png,

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

It is not rare for the New Year to usher in a new trend. With a completed Elliott wave pattern (5 waves) from the 2008 low at 6000, the risk of a sharp reversal in the AUDUSD is high. RSI divergence across several peaks bolsters the topping view as does the break of the 5th wave channel. 9537 is the initial level of interest.

.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

Weekly Bars

012111FXTW_body_nzdusd.png,

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The NZDUSD may have completed wave b of a flat in late 2010. 5 waves down are visible from the top so the probability is increased that wave c down is underway. A break below 7342 would confirm as much. 6950 will be a level to watch in the event of a break.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly Candles

012111FXTW_body_usdjpy.png,

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The USDJPY bullish candle from the week that ended 1/7 warns of an eventual break higher. A weekly close above 8450 would negate the RSI bear signal and shift focus to 8520 (100% extension) and 8593 (September high). Near term patterns show impulsive (5 wave) rallies and corrective declines, which is also bullish. In the event of a break to a new low, watch the dashed line for potential support.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Weekly Bars

012111FXTW_body_usdcad.png,

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Downside pressures remain as the USDCAD remains below a nearly 5 month resistance line but this week's key reversal warns of a low. The key reversal (magenta bars) has worked well with the USDCAD and should not be ignored. If weakness continues then support is 9710 (former support) and the dashed lines (one is a support line and the other a former resistance line). A rally through the mentioned resistance line would warrant a bullish stance against 9836.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

Weekly Bars

012111FXTW_body_usdchf.png,

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

It is possible that a major low was put in place in the final week of 2010. The low, right at 9300, was just 50 pips below where the decline from 11730 would equal the decline from 12299. What's more, the low occurred at a support line and was accompanied with RSI divergence. 10065 is of interest now.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

012111FXTW_body_eurjpy.png,

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The EURJPY has continued higher following last week's key reversal. With the EURJPY breaking above a long term resistance line (again) and its 13 week average, one must consider the potential for a move 11566. In such an event, 11705 (100% extension) and 11964 (February low) would become resistance levels. Not until a break above 11566 are these levels in play however.

Euro / British Pound

Weekly Bars

012111FXTW_body_eurgbp.png,

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

A complex 4th wave correction remains underway in the EURGBP. Expectations are for continued weakness towards the lower channel line. This line intersects with the former 4th wave extreme at 7692 at the end of April. This outlook is favored as long as price is below 8646, which is at risk now following last week's key reversal.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.