EUR-USD @ 1.4519/21...Holding Long
R: 1.4522-48 / 1.4624-42 / 1.4671-81
The Euro has risen sharply after bad NFP numbers yesterday. In doing so, it seems to have now formed a new base for itself near 1.4355 which is likely to act as a strong Support going forward. Having risen sharply from a low of 1.4264 on Friday, it may rise further after some consolidation near 1.4430.
For the longer term, two possible scenarios emerge.
Among the two scenarios above, we would assign greater weightage to the first scenario and assume that the pair is headed upwards.
Limit Buy Order:
USD-CHF @ 1.0156/60...Bearish. Sell on rally
R: 1.0220 / 1.0250-70 / 1.0300
Swiss has fallen sharply and is now trading lower below 1.0200 thereby keeping up the overall downtrend intact. Support is seen in 1.0125-00 region which might be tested during the day if it continues to trade below 1.0200. Any sharp upmove is not looking likely now. However, a strong break above 1.0200 might see 1.0250-70 on the upside. As the broader picture continue to remain bearish, a rally towards 1.0250-70 could be taken as a good opportunity to take short position.
Limit Sell Order:
GBP-USD @ 1.6089/92...200-DMA overhead
R: 1.6095 / 1.6183-6210 / 1.6277
The Cable is clinging on to the upward moving 200-DMA. On Friday after the US NFP, extreme volatility gripped the markets and the Cable first rose towards 1.6110 only to fall back towards 1.5957. It subsequenty rose thereafter and is trading higher now; attempting a retest of 200-DMA. If broken, a further rise is likely to make the pair rise towards the Resistance region 1.6183-6210. The 200-DMA is at 1.6210 and the Projected Max High is at 1.6210.
Overall Cable has been bearish over the last several weeks. A significant downside is likely to see the pair rest near the 55-week MA (1.5688) which may then be have to studied for a double top formation on the weekly candles.