EUR-USD @ 1.4326/30...Looking to buy near 200-DMA
R: 1.4334 / 1.4369-90 / 1.4445
S: 1.4223-19 / 1.4138-18 / 1.4095
The Euro has dipped sharply overnight after having rallied to a high near 1.4458 yesterday. A further dip towards the pre-X'mas low near 1.4218 is possible. Overall, the Euro is currently trading in a 1.42-45 range, with an overall bearish bias. At the moment, it is trading just above the 100-week MA which comes in at 1.4303. Further, remember that 1.4223 is now the 200-day MA Support, off which the Euro had bounced just before X'mas. Below 1.4218, there is an important Support at 1.4118, the 38.2% retracement of the rise from 1.2457 (Mar-09) to 1.5144 (Nov-09).
Yes, the Euro has seen a good corrective fall of 6.1% in December. But this fall is almost equal to the 6.2% fall seen from the high of 1.3740 (Mar-09) to 1.2885 (Apr-09) which had also taken place over a month's time. Further, If we assume that a new upmove had started at 1.2456 on 04-Mar-09, then the current fall of Dec-09 could be ter med as Wave-4 of the upmove with the final Wave-5 upmove still to come.
Therefore, a case can be built for buying the Euro in the New Year if the Support region of 1.4218-4118 holds.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy EUR 10K at 1.4225, SL 1.4160, TP Open
Buy EUR 10K at 1.4125, SL 1.4060, TP Open
EUR-JPY @ 131.98/132.02...Uprise waning
R: 132.67 / 133.58 / 134.21
S: 131.75-51 / 131.29-131.00 / 130.78
The Cross has come down sharply after rising towards 132.60 yesterday. The 200-DMA was left untouched despite a sharp rise yesterday. The rise being seen over the last couple of weeks seems to be waning and the pair may find it diffcult to get past the Resistance zone 132.63-92 which contains the 55, 100 and 200-DMAs. Will have to see if the sharply rising 8-DMA (131.55) can provide the fuel to take the pair beyond the Resistance zone of 132.63-92.
For today, the 8-DMA is likely to provide sufficient Support which if broken may lead to a test of 130.50. The Projected Max High and Low for the day is at 133.58 and 130.27 respectively.
USD-CHF @ 1.0388/91...Immediate Resistance at 1.0395
R: 1.0395 / 1.0450-70 / 1.0510
S: 1.0335 / 1.0290 / 1.0220-00
Swiss has risen in the US session yesterday from the low of 1.0279 and is hovering near the Resistance at 1.0395 over the last few hours. As mentioned earlier, a strong break above this immediate Resistance at 1.0395 might see a rise towards 1.0450-70 during the day. Note that the projected Max-High for the day is 1.0460. On the downside the Support at 1.0290 is expected to hold during the day. As mentioned earlier we might expect a range of 1.0290-1.0450 for the rest of the week.
AUD-USD @ 0.8910/14...Significant Support at 0.8849
R: 0.8995 / 0.9030-50 / 0.9110
S: 0.8895 / 0.8849 / 0.8760
The Resistance at 0.8985 mentioned earlier held in the US session yesterday and Aussie has fallen from the high of 0.8993.However, it is continuing to trade above the 100-DMA (currently at 0.8895) which was broken on the upside yesterday. If it continues to trade lower, a break below the 100-DMA might pull it down towards 0.8849 (61.8% Fibonacci Fan line Support) which is the significant Support level seen on the downside. We expect this Support at 0.8849 to hold during the day as much strength is not see on its downmove.
On the other hand, if it continues to trade above the 100-DMA (0.8895) and gains upside momentum, we might see a rise once again towards the Resistance at 0.8995. A strong break above this Resistance at 0.8995 might see 0.9030-50 on the upside.
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