FX Thoughts - Morning II - 29-Dec-2009

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Euro EUR-USD @ 1.4376/80...Medium term Range between 21-DMA and 200-DMA
R: 1.4384 / 1.4414-31 / 1.4491
S: 1.4339 / 1.4242 / 1.4216

The Euro has been trading flat; however comfortably above the 200-DMA (1.4216). Having risen from a little above the 200-DMA last week, we would expect it to rise towards sharply declining 21-DMA (1.4560) over the course of the week or even early January. Till it decides the future course to take, the pair is ikely to oscillate between the 21-DMA on the top and 200-DMA at the bottom over the next few days. 21-DMA is likely to stage a strong contest when tested. We shall have to see.

For today, the Projected Max High and Low for the day is at 1.4491 and 1.4242 respectively.

Yen USD-JPY @ 91.72/75...Resistance 92.30
S: 91.55 / 91.20-00 / 90.70Dollar-Yen is ranged between 91.15-90 over the last few days. Failure to break below 91 during the fall seen towards the end of last week is still keeping up the chances of a rise towards 93. Immediate Resistance is seen at 91.90 a break above which might see a rise towards the next Resistance at 92.30. We expect the pair to test this Resistance at 92.30 today. A strong break and further upmove above 92.30 might see 93.00-30 on the upside. On the downside Support is seen in 91.20-00 region which we expect to hold during the day.

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