FX Thoughts - Morning II - 30-Dec-2009

USD-JPY @ 92.01/04...Support at 91.70

R: 92.50 / 93.00-30 / 93.60 S: 91.70 / 91.20-00 / 90.80

Dollar-Yen has risen breaking above the Reistance at 91.90. With Support at 91.70, there are good chances of a rise towards 92.50 in the coming sessions. A strong break and a further upmove above 92.50 might see a rise towards 93.00-30. On the other hand, a break below the Support at 91.70 might pull it down towards 91.20-00.

GBP-USD @ 1.5902/06...Immediate important Support at 1.5881

R: 1.5959-67 / 1.6024 / 1.6057-68 S: 1.5881-60 / 1.5740 / 1.5634-27

The Cable has fallen after facing stiff Resistance from the region 1.6042-58 which houses the 13-DMA and 200-DMA which has been pressuring the pair lower over the last few days. On the downside, the Support at 1.5907-5881 mentioned yesterday has been holding. We would expect the pair to neither break below this Support nor above the Resistance mentioned above for the next couple of days (i.e., until the new year).

Overall, having fallen below the 200-DMA last week, the pair has rendered itself bearish for a test of 55-week MA which is at 1.5634 presently. Till it continues to stay below this 200-DMA, the bearish sentiments would be alive. The weekly charts suggest that the pair is in the process of making a double top, which shall be confirmed only on a break below the 55-week MA. Till then, the pair is moving in a long term range of 1.56-1.70.

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