Britain's budget deficit will narrow more than forecast. (Bloomberg)
The market usually leads because there are people who know more than you do.
FX Trading - $50 billion here, $50 billion there...Short euro? Be careful here with euro...
The phrase I think originally went something like this: A million here and a million there; pretty soon you are talking real money. We can only dream our government used numbers with so few digits. News on the wire is that President Obama's economic team will push congress for another $50 billion in funds; supposedly targeted to teachers, police, and fireman jobs that are disappearing thanks to the giant hole in state, as well as federal, budgets. For those handicapping a double-dip recession, this news carries some weight.
This news follows on the much worse than expected US non-farm payroll report for May. Jobs represent the raw material to drive real recovery. So far, we can call it Keynesian stimulus that has provided much of the juice to keep hope alive, but running out of bullets we and many other western nations are. This is most likely why George Soros says we are entering Act II of the financial crisis. Mr. Soros said last year that he expected a double-dip global recession in either late 2010 or early 2011.
A double-dip was also one of our calls, when you make those types of guesses in typical New Year's forecasts. But our call so far has been all wet, as we predicated a double-dip on the back of a slowdown in China. In fact, China has been the shining star as we know. But here is the potential takeaway, trying to get it back to FX:
The fact that additional US stimulus is needed to keep hope alive in the job market, changes the expectations on the Fed's next hike; now delayed at least and QE back on a possibility.
This explains why the US Treasury has decided to mostly pass on China as a currency manipulator; the last thing the global economy needs now is a fight between the US and China.
Maybe it also suggests the US will be happy to see a little weakness in the buck, as it helps China's exports, supporting the primary engine of global growth at the moment. A fall in the US dollar is a corresponding fall in the Chinese yuan.
...all this (maybe guesswork on our part) comes at a time of MAX bearishness on euro, even though the latest vehicle established seems to be providing some calm to Eurozone markets.
Recently we guessed a dollar correction might be afoot, in Currency Currents.
Given the economic backdrop, seemingly slight changes in expectations, and technical condition of the euro, it could mean the correction could have some legs.
So, if you are max short euro here, you may want to be careful.
Black Swan Capital
Miss the Bus? We think not.
Two big questions: is it too late to profit from the euro crash? Will it bounce, and if so, can we trade these price swings?
In fact, we do.
Last week we told our members we thought the Euro was due for a bounce and we positioned them to take advantage of it. We've not changed our long term view, but when we see an opportunity we don't hesitate to position our members so they can take advantage of it.
And so far we've done well in 2010. And we expect to do even better as we move into the second half of the year
For good measure, included here is our year-to-date track record and profit curve, reflecting through Friday, June 11.
Here's the bottom line...
We think the Euro is eventually going to par with the dollar - 1:1 - or maybe even lower before the current trend comes to an end.
If you're not sure how to implement a currency trading strategy, we've got you covered. And we offer a 30-day 100% money-back guarantee if this isn't for you. After that we prorate your refund on a weekly basis if it's not working for you.
This is speculative trading and is not for everybody. If you're cut out for this, jump over now and give it a try.
All the best,
Director of Sales and Marketing
Black Swan Capital