Friday 4th April 2008

With the Euro/Usd entering a Negative Trend at yesterday's fixing (13.00hrs CET) we briefly had a 'full house' (Usd/Zar excepted) of USD positive signals. However this scenario was short lived as a very dissapointing set of initial jobless claims abruptly reversed market sentiment and the Euro rallied back through its T/R as it rose near on 180 points.

We still emphasise that the T/R's are best traded on breaks for the time being as the market remains very nervous and is desperate for a lead as to whether the US has seen the worst of the economic news.

Today's March non farm payrolls may well give us further insight into this and the market is expected to be cautious ahead of this number. Overnight the Aussie has fallen back against the USD and Yen as retail sales numbers show an unexpected drop and the RBA continues to talk dovishly. Difficult markets ..keep your disciplines!