The G20 has started! And on April fool€™s day! Is that a sign? Markets are trading on positive territory today, with Asia and Europe gaining and also New York continuing on the same note! Fears of GM failing were wiped off when US housing data rose despite dismal forecasts! However, investors are still wary of the G20 outcome which is likely to monopolize everyone€™s attention for now!
The EUR/USD is trading lower since New York open and the move towards 1.33 was not enough to sustain a breakout! As long as 1.3280 holds for now, the pair looks poised for another go at 1.31 in the coming days! Let€™s not forget that traders await Mr. Trichets crucial words after the monetary decision which is expected to be a cut of 50 bps. The pair will likely stay within ranges of 1.31-1.33 for now, however a break of those levels may give us the direction we are looking for.
Today the economic calendar had a few important data out of Euro zone and UK and also US. The Manufacturing PMI came out much worse than expected for the Euro zone and better for UK, hence the EUR/GBP big move on the downside! The market participants have started to have less faith in euro than the pound, as the economic data of UK have been better in the last few days!
Also today we had more bad news out of ADP report which saw -742.000 jobs being lost, which is making investors bracing for a dismal nonfarm payroll number this Friday! The rest of the data were better than expected for the US, with Housing and ISM beating forecasts to the upside!
Traders however, are turning their attention to the current G20 economic summit which takes place in London and already a lot have been said about the expected outcome! Most Europeans are pessimistic for the G20 outcome and they believe it serves no purpose to the economic recovery! Recently German prime minister Merkel warned that efforts of Obama and his boys to pump all that money into the problems won€™t be enough and it may very well come back to haunt them!
The dollar€™s direction may be determined this week, what with G20 and also the nonfarm payroll data. Dollar€™s moves don€™t really reflect on fundamentals and that may continue for now until we see some kind of economic stability materializing! Investors think this: euro and pound have more chances of failing rather than the dollar and no matter the severity of the economic trouble, the dollar is... was and likely will be the main world currency reserve and all the tries in the world by the Chinese or the Russians won€™t change that€¦at least for now€¦so investors will keep buying it as a safety net whenever risk aversion kicks in.
As for the direction of gold, I feel that there is risk to the upside in the coming sessions and what we experiencing at the moment may be a simple retracement from the recent rally over 1000. As long as 900 level holds for now, I believe there is further upside towards 960-980. A clear break of the latter level will give us another try over 1000.For now the range is 900-980.
Let€™s see how G20 unfolds and what the world leaders have to say about the current crisis and ways to resolve it and if the outcome will be enough for market participants to find again their lost confidence. The ECB meeting is the next big event for the euro and with inflation coming out at its lowest levels and data deteriorating further it will be crucial to watch how that will play out with further rate cuts below 1%. Will ECB follow US and UK all the way down to zero? That may be answered tomorrow and with the help of G20 it will be an interesting and volatile day for markets across the globe€¦