GBP/JPY's fall from 163.05 resumes today by taking out 155.95 support and reaches as low as 154.67 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen to 153.81 support next. As discussed before, a short term top is at least formed at 163.05 with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Break of 153.81 will confirm that whole rise form 146.75 has completed and will bring deeper decline to retest this low. On the upside, above 157.06 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 160.34 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, the case of topping continues to build up with bearish divergence condition seen in daily MACD and RSI. As discussed before, rise from 118.81 is treated correction to the larger down trend from 07 high of 251.90 only. Break of trend line support (now at 153.24) will be an initial alert that such correction has completed. Break of 146.75 support will confirm and will turn outlook bearish for 118.81 low eventually. At this moment, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. But even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited by 50% retracement of 215.87 to 118.81 at 167.34 to conclude such correction and bring reversal.