Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.

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Multiple Time-frame Analysis

GBP/JPY Should Consolidate Further; Elliott Wave Count Adjustment (3/2)


- In the very short-term we see that the GBP/JPY has been bullish to end last week, and to start this one, but has since found a range roughly between 132.80 and 134.10.
- If the 133.75 pivot does not hold, the market might fall back down to test the support. We should consider 133.00 as support, and not 132.80.
- However, if there is a break below 132.80, a stronger bearish attempt in the near-term is signaled.
- A channel break out projection would target the 78.6% retracement level just below 132.00.
- It does not look like the correction rally is over, so I would anticipate another rally attempt from this 132.00 level to finish what could be wave 2 seen in the 4H chart.
- If the market breaks above 135.45 however, this count is invalid, and we would probably be in the middle of an extended wave III going up, instead of C.
- The GBP/JPY in the 4H chart has bullish price action, and suggests we might have completed wave (b) as a flat or triangle (instead of a zig zag anticipated yesterday), and therefore the bearish outlook in the 1H chart would not be valid. In this scenario wave (c) should be starting now to complete wave 2, confirmed with a strong break above 134.10.
- Let's continue to monitor this consolidation and see where the market wants to go after twisting and turning.

Are we in a wave 2, or actually some degree of wave (3) in an extending wave 3 going up? We would love to hear what you think.
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