Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
- The 1H chart shows that a break above the flag pattern materialized into a rally with 100% swing projection to 132.50.
- This was the projected rally and target form yesterday's GBP/JPY post.
- The count is not very apparent and has been adjusted. In such a persistent triangle, we are likely to be in a wave 3 (see in 4H chart below). A break would then suggest termination of wave 3.
- It appears that the GBP/JPY is mounting a strong rally, but is meeting heavy resistance. What will happen to the bulls when they attack the bear's resistance?
- The daily chart shows the market at 200SMA and declining resistance at 132.50-133.00 area. A break above this zone suggests we can attack the 135.00 area as well as another declining channel resistance from pivots to the left of the shown chart.
- While the RSI in the daily is becoming more bullish, the RSI in the 4H has been overbought and has flattened out possibly to develop an extended bearish divergence. This is setting up for for wave 4, which should not break below 129.50. It should probably be supported near 131.00. We might not even get our wave 4 before the break above 132.50/133.00. Let's see if this resistance forces a break below the channel for wave 4.
- Bearish candles have become very weak, so a very strong one (preferably stronger than any bullish ones in the rally will be a big clue for a reversal to support pivots.
- Until then, anticipate further rally as the Sterling strengthens.
Can the Sterling keep up its strength? We would love to hear what you think.
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist