GBP/JPY dipped marginally lower to 139.69 last week but recovered quickly. The development indicates that consolidation from 139.72 is still in progress. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, even in case of another recovery to 144.51 and above, upside is expected to be limited below 140.01 support turned resistance. On the downside, below 139.69 will indicate that whole decline from 163.05 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 135.70 next.
In the bigger picture, the bearish outlook remains unchanged. medium term rebound from 118.18, which is treated as correction to the larger down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed with a double top reversal pattern (162.56, 163.05). Fall from 163.05 is tentative treated as resumption of the long term down trend and should now target a new low below 118.81. On the upside, break of 153.22 resistance is needed to invalidate this bearish view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.