GBP/JPY's rebound from 125.48 extended further to as high as 131.86 last week and closed strongly. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for near term falling trend line resistance (now at 132.22) and above. Nevertheless, note that there is no indication that choppy medium term fall from 163.05 is finished yet before a break of 134.19 resistance. Below 130.43 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside first. Further break of 128.29 support will indicate that rebound from 125.48 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for 125.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 118.81 are treated as consolidation in the larger down trend from 251.09, with first leg finished at 163.05. Choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as the second leg and there is no confirmation that such fall is finished. Nevertheless, even in case of deeper decline, strong support should be seen at 118.81 low to contain downside and bring another medium term rally as the third leg. On the upside, break of 134.19 resistance will indicate that the third leg of the consolidation has likely started and will turn outlook bullish for 163.05 resistance and possibly above.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

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