Despite edging higher to 132.64 last week, subsequent sharp fall from there pulled GBP/JPY back into familiar range. Also, note that once again, GBP/JPY failed to sustain above medium term falling trend line resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week. Break of 129.49 support will indicate that rebound from 125.48 has finished. In such case, deeper fall would be seen to 125.48 and possibly below to extend medium term decline from 163.05. On the upside, above 132.64 will bring another rise towards 134.19 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 118.81 are treated as consolidation in the larger down trend from 251.09, with first leg finished at 163.05. Choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as the second leg and there is no confirmation that such fall is finished. Nevertheless, even in case of deeper decline, strong support should be seen at 118.81 low to contain downside and bring another medium term rally as the third leg. On the upside, break of 134.19 resistance will indicate that the third leg of the consolidation has likely started and will turn outlook bullish for 163.05 resistance and possibly above.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

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