GBP/JPY built up some up side momentum again last week and rose to as high as 134.21 but faced some resistance from 134.19 and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some sideway consolidations first. Nevertheless, another rise remains in favor as long as 132.48 support holds. Sustained break of 134.19 cluster resistance (23.6% retracement of 163.05 to 125.48 at 134.34) will confirm that whole medium term fall from 163.05 has completed. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 137.75 resistance and then 38.2% retracement at 138.83. However, below 132.48 will flip intraday bias back to the downside and bring deeper pull back towards 129.49 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 118.81 are treated as consolidation in the larger down trend from 251.09, with first leg finished at 163.05. Choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as the second leg and there is no confirmation that such fall is finished. Nevertheless, even in case of deeper decline, strong support should be seen at 118.81 low to contain downside and bring another medium term rally as the third leg. On the upside, sustained break of 134.19 resistance will indicate that the third leg of the consolidation has likely started and will turn outlook bullish for 163.05 resistance and possibly above.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

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