GBP/JPY's sharp fall last week suggests that a short term top is formed at 135.48 after hitting 55 weeks EMA. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper fall could be seen towards 129.49 support. Nevertheless, we're treating such decline from 135.48 as a correction only and would expect strong support from support from 61.8% retracement of 125.48 to 135.48 at 129.30 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 132.45 minor support will flip bias back to the upside for recovery. But break of 135.48 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidations before 135.48 first. However, sustained break of 129.30 fibonacci level will dampen this view and turn focus back to 125.48 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 118.81 are treated as consolidation in the larger down trend from 251.09, with first leg finished at 163.05. Choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as the second leg and should be finished at 125.48 already. The third leg of consolidations should have started at 125.48 and should now target 163.05 and above. Though cluster resistance at 38.2% retracement of 251.09 to 118.81 at 169.34 and 100% projection of 118.81 to 163.05 from 125.48 at 169.72 should limit upside and bring reversal.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

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