GBP/JPY's recovery from 116.83 continued last week and with 118.76 minor support intact, further rise might still be seen. But after all, such recovery is treated as correction in recent decline only. Hence, we'd expected upside to be limited by 122.26 resistance (38.2% retracement of 130.83 to 116.83 at 122.17) and bring fall resumption. Below 118.76 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 116.83 will confirm decline resumption and should target 110 psychological level next.
In the bigger picture, fall from 163.05 is part of the long term down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 and is still in progress. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06, which is close to 100 psychological level. on the upside, break of 130.83 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Monthly MACD will likely be dragged down by the current decline, which suggest that the cross is building up downside momentum again. Current development now favors a break of 100 psychological level before the cross bottoms.