Development in GBP/JPY suggested that corrective rise from 116.83 has completed with three waves up to 122.63. However, there was no follow through selling to confirm yet. Initial bias is neutral and we'll wait for more evidence to affirm or invalidate this view. on the downside, below 119.98 minor support will affirm the bearish case and should turn bias back to the downside for retesting 116.83 first. On the upside, above 122.63 will extend the rebound towards 161.8% projection of 116.83 to 120.78 from 116.96 at 123.35 and above. Though, we'd expect strong resistance from 125.48/68 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 130.83 to 116.83 at 125.48, 38.2% retracement of 140.02 to 116..83 at 125.68) to limit upside to conclude the corrective rise and bring down trend resumption.
In the bigger picture, fall from 163.05 is part of the long term down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 and is still in progress. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06, which is close to 100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 130.83 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Monthly MACD will likely be dragged down by the current decline, which suggest that the cross is building up downside momentum again. Current development now favors a break of 100 psychological level before the cross bottoms.