GBP/JPY's fall extended further to as low as 139.72 last week and turned into sideway trading since then. Friday's rebound suggests that consolidation from 139.72 is still in progress and another rise would be seen to above 144.52 minor resistance initially this week. Nevertheless, upside of the recovery is still expected to be limited below 149.01 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 140.78 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside first. Break of 139.72 will indicate that whole fall from 163.05 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 135.70 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 118.18, which is treated as correction to the larger down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed with a double top reversal pattern (162.56, 163.05). Fall from 163.05 is tentative treated as resumption of the long term down trend and should now target a new low below 118.81. On the upside, break of 153.22 resistance is needed to invalidate this bearish view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY