GBP/JPY was bounded in choppy sideway trading in familiar range below 150.68 last week without making any progress. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more sideway trading could be seen. Note that another rise cannot be ruled out with 146.64 minor support holds. Above 149.98 will bring rally to 150.68 or above. However, there is no change in the view that recent price actions from 139.96 are merely consolidations to fall from 163.05 only, with rise from 139.26 as the third leg. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 153.21 resistance and bring reversal. On the downside, below 146.64 minor support will suggest that rise from 139.26 has completed at 150.68 already and fall from there is resuming. Intraday bias will then be flipped back to the downside for 141.99 support for confirmation. And break there will target a retest on 139.26 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is expected to resume after sideway consolidation from 139.69 completes and should target a new low below 118.81. However, note that sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 139.26 at 153.96 will argue that fall from 163.05 has finished already and will in turn indicate that rise from 118.81 is still in progress to another high above 163.05 before conclusion.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY