GBP/JPY dropped further to 143.62 last week but drew support from 61.8% retracement of 139.26 to 150.68 at 143.62 and turned recovered. Nevertheless, note that 147.25 resistance remains intact so far and hence the bearish outlook remains unchanged. That is, choppy rise from 139.26, as well as the three wave consolidation pattern from 139.69, has completed at 150.68 already. Initial bias is cautiously on the downside this week and break of 143.62 will confirm fall resumption to 141.99 support and then a retest on 139.26 low. On the upside, however, above 147.25 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and we'll turn neutral first in such case.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is possibly resuming as consolidation pattern from 139.69 has likely finished at 150.68 already. Break of 139.26 will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 135.70 next. Break will further affirm the case that whole down trend from 2007 high of 251.90 is resuming for another low below 118.81. This will remain the preferred view as long as 150.68 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY