GBP/JPY's fall from 127.30 extended further to as low as 122.96 and with daily MACD crossed below signal line, whole choppy rebound from 116.83 might be finished at 127.30 already, ahead of falling 55 weeks EMA. Intraday bias will remain on the downside with 124.12 minor resistance intact and focus is on 122.63 support. Break will affirm this bearish case. Further break of 119.98 will confirm and target a test on 116.83 low. Though, above 124.12 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside and would possibly extend the rebound from 116..83 for another high above 127.30 before completion.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal in GBP/JPY as it's still staying well below the falling 55 weeks EMA (now at 128.87). The down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 is still expected to continue to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06, which is close to 100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 130.83 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish even in case of further rebound.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Monthly MACD will likely be dragged down by the current decline, which suggest that the cross is building up downside momentum again. Current development now favors at least a break of 100 psychological level before the cross bottoms.

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