GBP/JPY was bounded in tight range last week and consolidations from 138.23 continued. More choppy sideway trading could still be seen initially this week. Nevertheless, even in case of stronger recovery, upside is still expected to be limited 143.04 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 139.61 minor support will suggest that recovery from 138.23 has possibly completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 138.23 will confirm decline resumption towards 61.8% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 135.70 next.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Decline from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 and should target a new low below 118.81. On the upside, break of 150.68 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.