GBP/JPY 's recovery from 138.23 extended further to as high as 143.59 last week but was limited by 143.04/145.26 resistance zone and weakened. There is not change in the view that such recovery is a correction the larger down trend. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. Break of 140.70 minor support will indicate that such recovery has completed and flip intraday bias back to the downside for 138.23 support first. Break will confirm fall resumption to 61.8% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 135.70 next. On the upside, in case of another rise, we'd continue to expect strong resistance at 143.04/145.26 to conclude the recovery.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Decline from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 and should target a new low below 118.81. On the upside, break of 150.68 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.