GBP/JPY's resumed last week and by taking out 138.23 and dived to as low as 134.64, meeting mentioned target of 61.8% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 135.70. Intraday bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen towards next target of 100% projection of 150.68 to 138.23 from 143.59 at 131.14. On the upside, above 137.03 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited by 139.58 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Decline from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 and should target a new low below 118.81. On the upside, break of 143.59 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.