After dipping to 134.53 initially last week, GBP/JPY recovered strongly to as high as 138.28. The development suggests that consolidation from 132.13 is still in progress. Broad based weakness in Japanese yen argues such consolidation is correction whole fall from 150.68 and stronger recovery might be seen. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside this week and further rise could be seen to 139.33, or even further to 55 days EMA (now at 139.87). However, upside should be limited below 143.59 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 150.68 to 132.13 at 143.59) and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 136.61 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 134.53 will argue that whole medium term fall from 163.05 is resuming for 132.13 and beyond.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish view. Medium term rebound from 118.18, which is correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Decline from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 and should target a new low below 118.81. On the upside, decisive break of 143.59 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 150.68 to 132.13 at 143.59) is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY