GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

 @ibtimes
on April 05 2010 9:18 AM

GBP/JPY's rally from 134.53 extended further to as high as 144.51 so far. While the cross is losing some upside momentum, further rise is still expected as long as 142.74 minor support holds. GBP/JPY should now be targeting 161.8% projection of 132.13 to 139.33 from 134.53 at 146.17 next. On the downside, below 142.74 will suggest that a temporary top is formed and bring retreat, probably to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 140.44). However, break of 132.13 is needed to confirm that rise from 132.13 is completed. Otherwise, another rally would be in favor after the pull back.

In the bigger picture, the break of 143.59 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 150.68 to 132.13 at 143.59) dampened the bearish view and argue that medium term fall from 164.05 is completed with three waves down to 132.13 already. The corrective structure in turn argue that whole rise from 2009 low of 118.18 is still in progress. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 132.13 at 151.23 will affirm this case and set the stage for another high above 163.05. On the downside, break of 134.53 support is now needed to revive that case that GBP/JPY has topped out at 163.05.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction from 118.81.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

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