GBP/JPY pulled back to as low as 140.94 last week but was supported by 4 hours 55 EMA and rebounded strongly. Nevertheless, as upside is limited below 144.71 resistance, more consolidations could still be seen in near term. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more sideway trading and another fall cannot be ruled out. On the upside, break of 144.71 resistance will confirm that whole rise from 132.13 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 134.53 to 144.71 from 140.94 at 147.23 next.
In the bigger picture, the break of 143.59 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 150.68 to 132.13 at 143.59) dampened the bearish view and argue that medium term fall from 164.05 is completed with three waves down to 132.13 already. The corrective structure in turn argue that whole rise from 2009 low of 118.18 is still in progress. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 132.13 at 151.23 will affirm this case and set the stage for another high above 163.05. On the downside, break of 134.53 support is now needed to revive that case that GBP/JPY has topped out at 163.05.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction from 118.81.
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