GBP/JPY edged higher to 145.94 last week but failed to sustain gain there and turned into sideway trading. With daily MACD staying below signal line, rise from 132.13 should have made a short term top at 145.94 already. More consolidations should be seen below 145.94 in near term. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for another leg of correction and below 141.58 minor support will target support zone of 139.03/36 (50% retracement of 139.03 to 145.94 at 139.03). On the upside, break of 145.94 is needed to confirm rise resumption to 150.68. Otherwise, outlook will remain neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 118.81 are treated as consolidation in the larger decline from 2007 high of 251.09, no doubt. Question is on whether such consolidation/correction from 118.81 is completed at 163.05 already. The structure of the fall from 163.05 to 132.13 is not supporting that it's resuming the down trend. However, rebound from 132.13 is not strong enough to take it through 55 weeks EMA yet (now at 148.25). We're stay neutral first.
On the upside, break of 150.68 resistance will confirm the case that fall from 163.05 is merely a correction to rebound from 118.81. In other words, the correction from 118.81 is still in progress for another high above 163.05 before completion. On the downside, break of 132.13 will suggest that price actions from 139.69 are merely three wave consolidation (153.21, 132.13, 145.94) that's skewed downward. In other words, fall from 163.95 is developing into steep decline for a new low below 118.81.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction from 118.81.