GBP/JPY's rebound from 117.29 extended to as high as 122.04 before forming a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week for some sideway trading. However, note that another rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 119.19 minor support holds. As noted before, rise from 117.29 is viewed as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 116.83. Above 122.04 will bring another rise towards 127.30 resistance. Nonetheless, break of 119.19 will indicate completion of the rebound and flip bias back to the downside for 117.29 instead.

In the bigger picture, consolidation from 116.83 is still in progress and fall from 140.20, which is part of the medium term down trend from 163.05, is not ready to resume yet. While rise from 117.29 might extend further higher, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement of 140.02 to 116.83 at 128.42 to finish the consolidation and bring down trend resumption. We will not consider medium term trend reversal yet before sustained trading above 128.42 fibonacci level.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Monthly MACD will likely be dragged down by the current decline, which suggest that the cross is building up downside momentum again. Current development now favors at least a break of 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06, which is close to 100 psychological level, before the cross bottoms.