GBP/JPY dropped sharply to as low as 130.00 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. The break of 132.13 support indicates that whole fall from 163.05 has resumed. Hence, while some more sideway trading might be seen initially this week, we'd expect upside to be limited by 139.36 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 145.19 to 130.00 at 139.38) and bring fall resumption. Below 133.13 minor support will turn intraday bias to the downside. Further break of 130.00 will target a retest of 118.18 low.

In the bigger picture, last week's development revives that case that recovery from 118.81, which is treated as correction in the larger down trend from 2007 high of 251.09, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of such long term down trend and should target 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06 next, which is close to 100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 145.94 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction from 118.81.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY