GBP/JPY's rebound from 117.29 resumed last week and reached as high as 123.17 before making a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. Another rise will remain in favor as long as 121.40 minor support holds, though. Above 123.17 will target 100% projection of 117.29 to 122.04 from 119.58 at 124.33 and above. Also, note that current rebound from 117.29 is viewed as third leg of the consolidation pattern from 116.83 and could target 127.30 resistance eventually. On the downside, below 121.40 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 119.58 support will indicate that such rebound has indeed finished and would likely bring retest of 116.83 low then.
In the bigger picture, consolidation from 116.83 is still in progress and fall from 140.20, which is part of the medium term down trend from 163.05, is not ready to resume yet. While rise from 117.29 might extend further higher, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement of 140.02 to 116.83 at 128.42 to finish the consolidation and bring down trend resumption. We will not consider medium term trend reversal yet before sustained trading above 128.42 fibonacci level.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Monthly MACD will likely be dragged down by the current decline, which suggest that the cross is building up downside momentum again. Current development now favors at least a break of 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06, which is close to 100 psychological level, before the cross bottoms.