GBP/JPY's sharp reversal and break of 132.99 minor support indicates that choppy recovery from 126.73 is already completed. Initial bias will be on the downside this week for 126.73 low first. Break there will confirm that recent decline has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 145.94 to 126.73 from 136.39 at 124.51 next. On the upside, in case of another rise, we'd continue to expect strong resistance between 55 days EMA (now at 137.22) and 61.8% retracement of 145.94 to 126.73 at 138.60 to limit upside and bring fall resumption finally.

In the bigger picture, no change to our bearish view that rebound from 118.81, which is treated as correction in the larger down trend from 2007 high of 251.09, has completed at 163.05 already after failing to sustain above 55 weeks EMA. Fall from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of such long term down trend and should target 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06 next, which is close to 100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 145.94 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction from 118.81.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY